Since I was Asked – My Tech Predictions for 2007

1) HD DVD will be the only HD DVDs you find in retail stores late next year.  If you want Blu-ray you will probably be ordering a lot online.

2) Half the people you kow that don’t have HDTV sets will have them before the year’s end.

3) Walmart will either buy Amazon, or become very closely partnered with them.

4) Microsoft will buy Ask.com (or merge with Yahoo).

5) Vista will start slowly but make huge strides next fall as the “have to have” back to school OS.  Sales will remain strong through the Holiday Season.

6) Sony will prematurely announce the Playstation IV – primarily to maintain customer interest due to poor sales of the Playstation 3.  (Pre-prediction for 2009 – the Playstation IV will be a year late by now).

7) $100 Internet ready laptops will be available at Walmart.  Custom Operating System.  Web-based Office Suite.  Is as popular as the Apple Newton.

8) The NFL Channel and Time Warner will come to an agreement (finally) but it’ll cost me a ton of money. (Hey, it’s Tech related, really!)

9) The only people using the term “Web 2.0” will be “Web 1.0” people that are just catching up.  Tagging websites with “Beta” will be more popular than ever.

10) MIcrosoft’s Zune Music player will overtake second position in sales of MP3 players.  It’ll cost Microsoft 100’s of millions of dollars, but in the end, they’ll make a fortune off the Zune.  More than Apple had made off the iPod.

 

What would you add?  Got any guesses?

Rob

Comments

  1. Braxton – nice comment… you made some great predicitions as well!

    Rob

  2. Responses.

    1. Neither HD DVD or Blue Ray will be worth the investment. One may win, but normal DVD serves the general population just fine. They like geting used movies for less than $16. If we were definition freaks then bitorent would have failed becuase people “hated” grainy downloads.

    2. Yes lots of very large HDTV will be solds. There will be two HDTVs in homes well before two normal TVs were in homes in relative terms / time to adoption.

    3. Agree.. It would be one good supply chain buying another. One is best in class for ground logistics and the other for internet.

    4. Disagree. Microsoft will focus on Vista.

    5. Vista will take off when $500 PC’s can run “aero” . Everything is in the $500 market.

    6. Playstation does not need a 4 yet. They need to actually get PS3 on store shelves. Then make a 3+ that plays and burns in a high definition format and has more memory.

    On a similar note I see an XBOX 360+ with HD-DVD standard, extra memory, and faster processors just to up the speed of current software.

    7. The third world needs $100 stuff. America needs better $400 stuff. This will keep Apple market share below 15% forever because they will never reach into that space.

    8. Don’t care about football

    9. I already see web 3.0. GPS location becomes an input changing what is offered. Everything is about focused marketing.

    10. Zune can beat iPod. It is the video iPod. As Zune becomes more iPaq-ish and interacts with computers and the internet it could become the “cyberdeck” of William Gibsons dreams.

    If it can incorporate GPS it can become a web 3.0 tool as described above.

    The deathblow will happen if HP breaks off iPaq and Zune merges with it. Then it becomes the all in one tool.

    Extra Predictions.

    1. The terahertz processor that Intel talked about shows that Intel is several steps ahead of AMD. They know how to put memory under the core meaning they could build an 8 core with four core technology. It also says they can eat Cell’s lunch any time they want.

    Intel will build it instead of an eight core chip to bring ray tracing to desktop games.

    2. AMD/ATI will have a bad 2007 but set themselves up to dominate in 2008. They also have the Cell beater idea that Intel has.

    If either can get windows patches that really push their platform they can jump ahead. Xp is still designed for the Pentium 4.

    3. Those cingular and verizon high speed internet cards take off when they build a home base to run your home PC / LAn off of the card as well. It gets rid of paying two high speed internet bills.

    4. Apple authorizes a clone of sorts by selling custom Typhon personal supercomputers in the xserve family.

    5. Nvidia pulls a clearspeed and offers a dll that enhances all computation functions through their card. You would have to turn it off to play high end games but it would jump any computer it touches into the sub ray tracing era. It will also be a catalyst for the Intel / AMD Cell busters.

    6. 22 inch screens become standard. 24 inch comes under $400.

    7. Apple goes Core 2 Quad GA GA in January. Laptops go quad in July and have GPS, Mac Mini goes core 2 duo in between.

    8. Hybrid hard drives become standard by July.

    9. The IRS starts charging a paper filing fee of $50 to get everyone to use software. The audit phase of the calculations is the IRS’s best friend because it scares most people into reversing exhorbaninte deductions. Tax software is the IRS’s best friend. Same with other goverments.

    One for 2008…

    2008 cars will incorporate mildbrid technology at a minimum to stop wasteing fuel by idleing. They already have GPS built in and will have GPS as a minimal cost feature. $300 instead of $800 or more.